When it comes to fantasy baseball, and roto leagues in particular, you’re often evaluating markets and looking for values within those markets. You’re hoping your analysis of players correctly differs from the public’s market value of the player at times or you’re hoping you can find hidden value with your draft strategy perhaps. With roto leagues in particular, value within markets becomes important as you monitor the value that is still left in certain stats as a draft or auction goes on (if you’re using my cheatsheets during the draft, you’d be aware of which categories you’re lagging in as well). My new sleeper system is designed to help you find valuable players in key hitting categories later in drafts so you can make up ground later in drafts.

A New Approach to Finding Sleepers

When this website started, I had an annual series called “The Search For Narco” where I tried to identify super sleepy (narcoleptic) hitters each season and it worked pretty well but, honestly, I saw flaws in it behind-the-scenes. It lacked the robustness and thoughtfulness of my sleeper pitcher identification system. If you know me from this site by now, you should know I don’t publish things that aren’t top-notch and things that I fully endorse. So, I didn’t publish any sleeper hitters for years as I worked on trying to create a better system. That day has come.

After trying to come up with one system to identify sleeper hitters, I realized a better approach would be to break it down to identify three different types of sleepers: contact hitters, power hitters, and speedsters – providing late-round help for AVG, HR, and SB categories in your fantasy leagues.

Using data from Baseball Reference, Fangraphs, Statcast, and Baseball Savant, I researched which stats most strongly predict future success in each category and then I established benchmarks in the chosen stats based on how predictive the stat was. The most predictive stats get the most stringent benchmarks. This is born out of the same philosophy as my sleeper pitcher identification system.

The Metrics That Matter

For each category of sleeper, here are the chosen statistics that I set benchmarks in for each season:

For Batting Average	For Home Runs	For Stolen Bases
Expected batting average (est_ba)	Barrel rate per plate appearance (brl_pa)	Speed score (Spd)
Strikeout percentage (K%)	50th percentile exit velocity (ev50)	Sprint speed (sprint_speed)
Inside pitch handling (I/Str)	Maximum exit velocity (max_hit_speed)	Expected baserunning value (XBR)
Zone contact rate (Z-Contact%)	Hard-hit percentage (Hard%)	Age (younger players steal more)
Hard-hit percentage (Hard%)	Fly ball percentage (FB%)
Outside-zone contact (O-Contact%)	Pull percentage (Pull%)

These stats are gathered from a variety of sources but I try to identify statistics that are unique identifiers of hidden traits valuable for either contact hitters, power hitters or speedsters.

Proof That It Works

I set a criteria of hitters having to achieve 5 out of 6 criteria for AVG or HRs and then set a criteria of a hitter needing to reach all of the SB benchmarks to be considered. When applied to 2021-2024 seasons, the results speak for themselves:

Batting Average:

Players meeting criteria: .275 AVG the following year
Players falling short: .249 AVG
Difference: +26 points

Home Run Rate (per 600 PA):

Players meeting criteria: 30.0 HR the following year
Players falling short: 17.9 HR
Difference: +12.1 HR

Stolen Base Rate (per 600 PA):

Players meeting criteria: 27.4 SB the following year
Players falling short: 9.1 SB
Difference: +18.3 SB

These aren’t marginal improvements—they’re category-defining differences calculated from over 20,000 at-bats and 40,000 plate appearances.

Past Successes

Now, the data above shows that players who meet our criteria go on to have good seasons as contact hitters, power hitters or speedsters but that includes even the elite hitters you will find in the first round. When we filter out the players who are typically being drafted in the top 100 of drafts, we can still find lots of value. Just looking at the past couple of years, the system has identified numerous breakout performers before they happened, including:

Yandy Díaz (ADP 286 in 2023) before his .330 AVG season
Luis Arraez (ADP 207 in 2023) before his batting title (.354 AVG)
Jake Burger (ADP 720 in 2023) before his 34 HR season
Jorge Soler (ADP 275 in 2023) before hitting 36 HR
Jacob Young (ADP 745 in 2024) before stealing 33 bases

These late-round category boosts were identified through the same methodical approach we’re using for 2025 below.

The 2025 Sleeper List

Finding Batting Average Late

*Ryan O’Hearn is going nearly undrafted but could be a sneaky source of batting average.*

Vinnie Pasquantino (1B, KC) – ADP: 110 – 2024 AVG: .262
Steven Kwan (OF, CLE) – ADP: 136 – 2024 AVG: .292
Alec Bohm (3B, PHI) – ADP: 162 – 2024 AVG: .280
Luis Arraez (1B/2B, SD) – ADP: 170 – 2024 AVG: .314
Yandy Díaz (1B, TB) – ADP: 189 – 2024 AVG: .281
Nico Hoerner (2B, CHC) – ADP: 195 – 2024 AVG: .273
Brendan Donovan (2B/OF, STL) – ADP: 235 – 2024 AVG: .278
Ryan O’Hearn (1B/OF, BAL) – ADP: 445 – 2024 AVG: .264
Randal Grichuk (OF, ARI) – ADP: 674 – 2024 AVG: .291
Jose Iglesias (2B/3B, SD) – ADP: 726 – 2024 AVG: .337
Miguel Rojas (SS, LAD) – ADP: 743 – 2024 AVG: .283

There are 11 players being drafted after the 100th pick that meet our criteria to be a sleeper in the AVG department. Now, players like Arraez, Kwan, and Díaz are already known for high AVG but are drafted later due to limited contributions in other categories. But, if you find yourself lagging behind in AVG by the middle rounds, getting one or two of these hitters can turn that category around for you instantly.

Looking for players who could show an improvement, any player who was below a .280 AVG last year on this list could see an improvement here. Hitters who reach out criteria do hit for .275 on average after all. So, focus on Vinnie Pasquantino and Ryan O’Hearn as chances for bigger leaps in AVG but, also, Nico Hoerner and Brendan Donovan represent great chances to get some value in the AVG category around the 200th pick.

Meanwhile, there are some players who can be had after the 600th pick but that’s because they’re currently bench players for their teams. That being said, Grichuk, Iglesias, and Rojas are bench players worth monitoring on the waiver wire if opportunities arise.

Deepest Sleeper: Ryan O’Hearn (ADP 445) – His .264 average in 2024 doesn’t turn heads, but his underlying metrics (.278 estimated AVG, 14.0% K%, 88% Z-Contact) suggest significant improvement potential.

Finding Home Runs After The Early Rounds

Matt Wallner could provide a surprising HR boost for your team late in the draft.

Jake Burger (1B/3B, TEX) – ADP: 105 – 2024 HR: 29
Shea Langeliers (C, ATH) – ADP: 109 – 2024 HR: 29
Matt Chapman (3B, SF) – ADP: 122 – 2024 HR: 27
Tyler O’Neill (OF, BAL) – ADP: 181 – 2024 HR: 31
Byron Buxton (OF, MIN) – ADP: 211 – 2024 HR: 18
Matt Wallner (OF, MIN) – ADP: 267 – 2024 HR: 13
Joc Pederson (DH, TEX) – ADP: 346 – 2024 HR: 23
Randal Grichuk (OF, ARI) – ADP: 674 – 2024 HR: 12

The first names on this list aren’t really shocking as these are player who delivered 30-ish HR seasons last year. But, still, Burger, Langeliers, Chapman, and O’Neill all profile as 30+ HR hitters for the season ahead too. If you need power after the 100th pick after missing out on it early in your drafts, these are some of the more sure-fire options. If you are okay with injury risk/reward, Buxton offers tons of risk but tremendous power when healthy.

Matt Wallner is perhaps the most intriguing sleeper here. His career pace already suggests 30+ HR power but he’s yet to play a full season in the majors, and with him leading off for the Twins, the opportunity is there. Be prepared to draft him earlier than his ADP suggests due to his hot spring (6 HRs).

Also, it should be noted that good ol’ Randal Grichuk appears on both our AVG and HR lists, suggesting some sneaky value if he gets playing time.

Deepest Sleeper: Joc Pederson (ADP 346) – He’s always had power but getting regular plate appearances has sometimes been an issue in his career. Now, in the cleanup spot for the Rangers, he has an excellent opportunity for power production at a bargain price.

Getting Speed Late In Drafts

Don’t sleep on Tyler Fitzgerald a stolen base source late in your draft.

Pete Crow-Armstrong (OF, CHC) – ADP: 137 – 2024 SB: 27
Lane Thomas (OF, CLE) – ADP: 173 – 2024 SB: 32
Ceddanne Rafaela (SS/OF, BOS) – ADP: 189 – 2024 SB: 19
Jake McCarthy (OF, ARZ) – ADP: 220 – 2024 SB: 25
Zack Gelof (2B, ATH) – ADP: 222 – 2024 SB: 25
Parker Meadows (OF, DET)* – ADP: 231 – 2024 SB: 9 (out until May)
Tyler Fitzgerald (SS/OF, SF) – ADP: 249 – 2024 SB: 17
Jacob Young (OF, WSN) – ADP: 307 – 2024 SB: 33
Sal Frelick (OF, MIL) – ADP: 476 – 2024 SB: 18
David Hamilton (2B/SS, BOS) – ADP: 512 – 2024 SB: 33
Edmundo Sosa (2B/3B/SS, PHI) – ADP: 633 – 2024 SB: 7
Johan Rojas (OF, PHI) – ADP: 702 – 2024: 25

When it comes to speed, we have a number of proven options after the 100th pick such as Crow-Armstrong, Lane Thomas, Jake McCarthy and Gelof. But, there are some sneaky plays here too that just need the opportunity to showcase their speed. For the 200+ ADP range, Ceddanne Rafaela and Tyler Fitzgerald are strong plays as both are in starting lineups (though batting 9th). Parker Meadows would be a great discount but adjust expectations due to his injury.

Deepest Sleeper: Sal Frelick (ADP 476) – After Tyler Fitzgerald goes off the board, Jacob Young and Sal Frelick represent your last chances to get an Opening Day starter with speed potential. Frelick is hitting 6th in the lineup so should have a decent amount of plate appearances and his price tag is basically nothing on draft day.

Final Thoughts

Finding true sleepers isn’t about gut feelings or spring training hype—it’s about identifying the underlying skills that predict success. The new-and-improved narco benchmark system has proven effective in my tests at identifying players who significantly outperform expectations in the most crucial fantasy categories. We’ll see how this performs in the first year of being published on the site but I think we’re getting some good insight into late-round value here for your drafts.

If you find yourself lagging behind in a few roto categories as your draft goes on, the players here offer you the best last chances to get value in either AVG, HR and SB. Happy drafting!