In the first part of this series on 2025’s undervalued pitchers, I introduced the sleeper system methodology as well as the top-tier targets that came up in our research this year. In today’s article, I will dive deeper into the starting pitcher sleepers to guide you through some of the mid-draft starters that you may want to target.

As background on this sleeper system, I use various research-backed benchmarks each season that are altered based on the previous season’s playing environment each year. These benchmarks help me identify the pitchers who have the best command in the league. Having great command means that a pitcher can overcome things outside of his control by simply winning the battle against the hitter more often than not. For fantasy purposes, this results in better ERA, WHIP and strikeout numbers which are really the hallmark of most fantasy pitching setups. The unique part of this sleeper system is that I identify these elite command pitchers and we find many of the studs you’d expect at the top of the list but then we find some undervalued pitchers who also meet those criteria littered throughout the draft as well. Those become our sleeper targets.

Does This Methodology Matter?

Well, actually, it does! I’ve been analyzing the success of this system for over ten years now and it repeats the same success year after year without much variation when it comes to identifying better fantasy pitchers for the whole league. As you can see below, any pitcher who met the criteria since 2013 has had a 3.53 ERA, 1.15 WHIP and 9.5 K/9 on average when compared to a 4.15 ERA, 1.29 WHIP and 7.9 K/9 for those that didn’t.

Now, the issue is that the numbers above include even the non-sleepers who met the criteria. Because, on average, this system has identified 33 pitchers per year on average but usually about 20 of those pitchers are already being selected among the elite pitchers of the drafts that year. What fascinates me are those dozen pitchers that meet our elite criteria yet are being drafted much later in drafts. Those are our sleepers and that’s what this series is about.

Has This Found Good Mid-Draft Sleepers Before?

Oh, silly you, of course this system has found great gems in the past. Specifically looking at the middle rounds of the draft, here are a number of recent success stories:

Chris Sale (2024) had a 2.38 ERA, 1.01 WHIP and 11.4 K/9 despite a 136 ADP
Hunter Greene (2024) had a 2.75 ERA, 1.02 WHIP, 10.1 K/9 despite a 124 ADP
Bryan Woo (2024) had a 2.89 ERA, 0.90 WHIP, 7.5 K/9 despite a 190 ADP (only 121 IP though)
Triston McKenzie (2022) had a 2.96 ERA, 0.95 WHIP, 8.9 K/9 despite a 228 ADP
Kevin Gausman (2021) had a 2.81 ERA, 1.04 WHIP, 10.6 K/9 despite a 139 ADP

And, I could go down the list to find more examples each and every year.

Now, the system isn’t fool proof though. We will still have injuries and pitchers who have terrible years on this list. But, somewhere within this list, there are likely to be anywhere from one to three gamechangers. That’s why we do this every year.

The Benchmarks

I went over this in Part 1 of this series but, for 2025, our benchmarks are:

Hard Hit under 31.2%
K-BB above 16.5%
Contact under 74.8%
Swinging Strike above 12.2%
Ball-in-Play under 27.2%
Strikes-to-Balls Ratio above 1.73
0-2 Counts Forced above 26.7%

The 2025 Sleeper Pitchers

Over this three-part series, I’ll look at 16 different pitchers that came up in my results despite having an ADP (average draft position) of 100 or later. This is our full list of potential sleepers to analyze:

Part 1: Top-Tier Targets	Part 2: Mid-Round Specials	Part 3: Late-Round Lotto
Hunter Greene (CIN)	Carlos Rodon (NYY)	Spencer Arrighetti (HOU)
Joe Ryan (MIN)	Jack Flaherty (DET)	Nick Lodolo (CIN)
Tanner Bibee (CLE)	Jared Jones (PIT)	David Festa (MIN)
Sonny Gray (STL)	Reynaldo Lopez (ATL)	DJ Herz (WSN)
	Yusei Kikuchi (LAA)	Reid Detmers (LAA)
	Ryan Pepiot (TB)	Tylor Megill (NYM)

I should also note that Grayson Rodriguez (BAL) qualifies as a mid-round sleeper here but I’m not including him because he’s only being drafted in the middle rounds because of a preseason injury.

Potential Mid-Round Sleepers

Carlos Rodón (NYY)

Carlos Rodón (Age 32, 148 NFBC ADP) has fallen from stud to sleeper but that’s not a bad thing. When a pitcher over the age of 30 comes up on this list, it usually is because they are good but there’s reason why drafters are pausing on them. Chris Sale was an example of this last year. Carlos Rodón isn’t quite Chris Sale, but it was only 2021 and 2022 that Rodon was delivering sub-3.00 ERA to go along with a 1.00 WHIP and 12+ K/9. His first season with the Yankees in 2023 was a disaster yet he made big strides last year to get back on track. He hasn’t fully regained his previous form, but the underlying metrics here suggest that he’s closer to his old self than it seems. At the price he’s being drafted at, he’s worth a gamble. What you are gambling on most importantly is health with Rodón but, honestly, any high-velocity arm is a gamble on health so why not gamble with a guy who has been an ace before? Verdict: Draft by pick 140

Jack Flaherty (DET)

Speaking of gambling on a pitcher’s health, here’s Jack Flaherty (Age 29, 148 NFBC ADP). Flaherty gave us a stud-like year in 2019 with a 2.75 ERA, 0.97 WHIP and 10.6 K/9 over 196 IP. Then, the injuries hit him like a ton of bricks as he only pitched 154 total innings over the next three seasons and he lost his effectiveness and command along the way too. While it seemed like his career was fading fast, he proved himself in Detroit last year as he posted a 2.95 ERA, 0.96 WHIP and 11.2 K/9 over 106 IP. Yes, it seems like early-career Flaherty was unlocked again and, more importantly, he stayed healthy for a full season (he also pitched 55 IP with the Dodgers last year). The underlying metrics here are all pointing to good things and I don’t see a reason to not take a gamble on Flaherty at his current ADP. There’s some caution with him due to health but, as I said before, everyone at this point in the draft has weaknesses but few have ceilings this high. Verdict: Draft by pick 140

Jared Jones (PIT)

Warning: Jared Jones is seeking a second opinion on his elbow so don’t draft him until you know what is happening with that. I will update this post when we know more.

Jared Jones (Age 23, 152 NFBC ADP) excited me more than most pitchers on this list because of his age and, therefore, potential for growth. These are often the very type of sleeper that we seek to find. His rookie season last year may have been overshadowed by the arrival of Paul Skenes but Jared Jones was very impressive as well despite the ERA and WHIP not being shiny and amazing (4.14 and 1.19 respectively). Part of the reason his results didn’t look as great on paper is because he had an inflated batting average on balls in play (BABIP) against him and a higher-than-normal HR/FB rate. With those both coming back down to normal, it’s easy to see a pathway for Jones to become a reliable fantasy starter for your team with a sub-4.00 ERA, low WHIP and high strikeouts.

But, the fact is that the recent injury news scares me. The Pirates shut him down for his next start and are doing imaging on his elbow. I rarely see this story end well. If he doesn’t miss time, will this injury crop back up later? Regardless, this may discount his draft price but I’d probably have to wait on more news before saying where to comfortably draft him. Verdict: Wait on the injury news

Reynaldo López (ATL)

Reynaldo López (Age 31, 170 NFBC ADP) is another pitcher over the age of 30 on this list and that’s partly because he’s bounced between being a starter and reliever but returned to the rotation full-time with Atlanta last year and started 25 games. Even though he had a 1.99 ERA, 1.11 WHIP and 9.8 K/9, drafters don’t know if that was a one-year mirage or the real thing yet. The numbers behind the stats support his breakout season though and the main question here is whether he can stay healthy all year in the second year of his transition from reliever to starter. I’ll trust the sleeper numbers here and say he can continue his success though. If he doesn’t pitch a full season, it’s not like you paid a premium for him. Verdict: Draft him around pick 150

Yusei Kikuchi (LAA)

Yusei Kikuchi (Age 33, 175 NFBC ADP) is an interesting case because, looking at his numbers, this ADP even seems a little optimistic for him. I mean, his career ERA is 4.57 over 800+ innings. So, why could he be a sleeper? He didn’t increase his velocity or anything; he made the biggest impact by changing his pitch repertoire and had his best K/BB by far last season (he had 10.5 K/9 and only 2.3 BB/9). Though he had a 4.05 ERA, his xFIP was 3.20 which shows that he pitched better than it seemed. Kikuchi is a sneaky play later in the drafts as his career numbers don’t seem to paint a picture of his full potential here. He could truly have his best season yet at age 33 if his evolution continues. Verdict: No need to reach but grab him at around pick 160

Ryan Pepiot (TB)

Ryan Pepiot (Age 27, 181 NFBC ADP) came over in the Tyler Glasnow deal and he seemed to flourish as a regular in their rotation, where his unique curveball was the star of the show. He’s entering his age 27 season and has had his workload managed prior to now. The hope is that he can pitch 160 IP this year after only 130 IP last year. In a full season, he has the potential to deliver a 3.50 ERA, 1.20 WHIP and a K/9 near 10. Given that he hasn’t fully broken out yet nor has he pitched a full MLB season, this is the time when his value is likely at its lowest. He either takes a huge leap forward this season and you got a mid-round ace or you wasted a pick at the 180th spot in your draft. Not a bad gamble. Verdict: Grab him at around pick 175 or reach a little if you want

Up Next…

We’ve made it through the bulk of the list as we’ve look at top-tier sleepers and then the middle-round sleepers. We have one last article ahead though and that’s where things get wacky. In the later rounds, there’s really no risk at all so it’s worth gambling on any high-potential player and, don’t you know it, we still have six more pitchers to look at who are going towards the tail-end of drafts. Every year, there are some gems to be found there. You’ll read more about this year’s potential gems in the final part of series soon.