Jan 12, 2012

Nolan Reimold - 2012 Fantasy Sleeper Candidate




There are a couple of fantasy baseball deep sleepers each year that can make the difference for your team. The following 2012 profile of Nolan Reimold will analyze the chances that he might be one of the next big sleepers. He was selected based on my simple selection process which is detailed in this introductory post.

ADP as of this posting: 275.04 (Round 23 in 12-team league)
Projected 2012 Role: Starting OF
2011 Production: .247 AVG, 13 HR, 40 R, 45 RBI, 7 SB in 305 PA
My 2012 Prediction: .280 AVG, 25 HR, 75 R, 80 RBI, 10 SB

After breaking out with a .279 AVG, 15 HR and 8 SB in half of a rookie year of 2009, Reimold became a darling sleeper candidate in 2010. Instead of playing baseball well, this sleeper chose to keep on sleeping and spent most of the year in the minors. Reimold owners grumbled and said they'd never speak to him again. In 2011, he played half a season of baseball again and did so quite well this time by hitting 13 HR and snatching 7 SB in 100 less PA's than 2009. Yet, like a tree falling in the forest with nobody around, fantasy owners didn't even seem to notice. That fact is evidenced by the idea that he's being projected as a 23rd round fantasy draft pick next year at this point.

One thing that might make fantasy owners ignore him is his poor batting average of .247 in 2011. A big dose of bad luck was the culprit there as his xAVG has him pegged at .281 for 2011 based on his low BABIP. Looking at his 2011 season, he started to really find his groove as the season went on. He posted a line of .281/5/16/17/6 in Sept/Oct which is pretty darn fantastic. So, the average should rise in 2012 and his power is still there with a small sprinkling of speed. If he can play a full season as starting OF in Baltimore, a dose of 25 HR and 10 SB is certainly not a reach at all based on his current career numbers in three incomplete seasons.

So, why was his ADP at 177 in 2010 after a nice half-year yet it is 275 in 2012 after a nice half-year? On the surface, the only difference seems to be that he burned a lot of owners and that does have an effect on his value. The only big negative on him at the moment is the fact that he is slotted as Baltimore's #8 hitter right now as that is not a great spot for producing runs. But if he plays well then they could be forced to move him up as the season goes on.

If you set aside bad feelings about his 2010 season and focus on the numbers, it becomes clear that there's still quite a bit of upside with Reimold. He is being drafted so late in drafts at the moment that it negates the risk involved with drafting him. You don't have to take him as a starting outfielder but taking him as one of your backups could pay dividends as he has the potential to deliver big value in 2012.

Sleeper Verdict: Very sleepy. He his high reward potential with very little risk.

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