Unlucky Ducks: 2010's ERA-FIP Leaders (Pitchers)

We looked at BABIP statistics already to identify extreme cases of good or bad luck of various batters from last season.  If we were to determine luck for pitchers, BABIP could also help there but the FIP statistic can be an even better indicator.  FIP was developed by Tom Tango and is more properly known as Fielding Independent Pitching.  It is used to estimate ERA based on HR allowed, BB allowed and strikeouts compared to innings pitched as those are the three true outcomes that are under a pitcher's control.  The idea being that a ball in play is often in control of the fielders as opposed to the pitchers so this statistic accounts for that by estimating the ERA that the pitcher actually deserved as opposed to the ERA that they actually had.

With that being said, we can compare the FIP statistic to the actual ERA for each pitcher in 2010 to get an idea of the gap between what was expected and what actually occurred.  If the ERA was much higher than the FIP, it's logical to assume that the pitcher was unlucky last year.  When we ran this analysis prior to 2010, some of the names that came up were Carl Pavano, Justin Verlander and Cole Hamels as candidates to have a better season than 2009 (though it should be noted that Ricky Nolasco was the most unlucky in 2009 and continued that trend in 2010).  For 2011, here are some of the pitchers to keep in mind:

Player	ERA	FIP	E-F
Brandon Morrow	4.49	3.16	1.33
Jason Hammel	4.81	3.70	1.11
Francisco Liriano	3.62	2.66	0.96
Zack Greinke	4.17	3.34	0.83
Yovani Gallardo	3.84	3.02	0.82
Justin Masterson	4.70	3.93	0.77
Ricky Nolasco	4.51	3.86	0.65
Gavin Floyd	4.08	3.46	0.62
Edwin Jackson	4.47	3.86	0.61
Cliff Lee	3.18	2.58	0.59
John Lackey	4.40	3.85	0.55
Scott Baker	4.49	3.96	0.53
Chad Billingsley	3.57	3.07	0.50

These players had the biggest gaps between ERA and FIP last season while still having a FIP below 4.00 and pitching over 140 innings.  They represent strong bets to improve upon last season's numbers.  It's notable that Francisco Liriano, Yovani Gallardo, Cliff Lee and Chad Billingsley came up on this despite their seemingly productive seasons but shows that they all have room for further improvement and might be worth bumping up on your draft boards slightly.  Zack Greinke already has his value bumped up with his move to the NL but the fact that he suffered from poor luck last year should give you more reason to keep him in mind on draft day [interesting that he turns up on this list considering he credits this statistic as a reason for his success].
From the sleeper department, you may want to look into most of the other names on the list but especially Brandon Morrow and Gavin Floyd as their FIP was below 3.50 even.  Some of other names that are hidden really low on draft boards like Justin Masterson also should be on your radar towards the end of drafts or on early waivers much like Carl Pavano should have been last year at this time.

Posted in: 2011, luck