Lucky Ducks: 2010's Lowest ERA-FIP Totals (Pitchers)

Finding out who was lucky or unlucky in fantasy baseball last season can certainly help you determine who to draft this time around.  Because of that, we already looked at major differences between ERA and FIP (Fielding Independent Pitching, which mimics ERA's format but only accounts for things under in a pitcher's control such as walks, strikeouts and HR's) to determine who was the most unlucky in 2010.  This time around, let's take a look at which fantasy pitchers benefited the most from a bit of good luck last season.

When a player's actual ERA for the season is significantly lower than their total FIP, it can be determined that they were aided by a large amount of luck to achieve that ERA.  If you looked at these numbers prior to last season, you would have known that some of the pitchers due for major regressions were J.A. Happ, Jair Jurrjens, Randy Wells and Rick Porcello despite their high average draft position last year.  For this season, some of the players due for a large step back would be:

Player	ERA	FIP	E-F
Clay Buchholz	2.33	3.61	-1.28
Tim Hudson	2.83	4.09	-1.26
Trevor Cahill	2.97	4.19	-1.21
Jonathan Sanchez	3.07	4.00	-0.93
R.A. Dickey	2.84	3.65	-0.81
Felix Hernandez	2.27	3.04	-0.77
Jamie Garcia	2.70	3.41	-0.71
David Price	2.72	3.42	-0.70
Ted Lilly	3.62	4.27	-0.65
Cole Hamels	3.06	3.67	-0.61
Roy Halladay	2.44	3.01	-0.57
Gio Gonzalez	3.23	3.78	-0.55
Ian Kennedy	3.80	4.33	-0.53

A number of these players are scheduled to be among the earlier group of pitchers taken this year.  However, it should be noted that players like Felix Hernandez and Roy Halladay had FIPs of 3.04 and 3.01 respectively so still would be major contributers for their team if that is what their ERA were to regress to.  The players with a FIP above 4.00 should be noted as ones to use greater caution with, such as Tim Hudson, Trevor Cahill, Jonathan Sanchez, Ted Lilly or Ian Kennedy.  Do not draft these players while expecting the same performances as last season.  Clay Buchholz gets the J.A. Happ Award for being the leader here this year so expect a major step back instead of a step forward.   If deciding to draft any of the players listed here, expect an ERA closer to their FIP here as opposed to the same ERA that they gave you last year.

Posted in: 2011, luck