Looking at Carlos Gonzalez's 2010 season, there's every reason to consider him a player drafted in the first round of drafts this season. So, he's not overvalued based on his results rather he is overvalued because it's unlikely that he will replicate those results this season. I was very high on CarGo last season and expected big things from him but even I didn't expect what we got. And, frankly, I'm not expecting it again this season.
When dissecting last season, let's start with his home run numbers. The 34 homers and .262 ISO (ISO is extra bases per at bat) were an extremely nice surprise but tempering expectations on those would be wise. The ISO number was much higher than his minor league or early major league career had shown. The effect of playing in Colorado certainly should be taken into consideration (a .357 ISO at home versus .164 on the road is certainly an indication of that as well as 26 of 34 HR's being at home). Outside of that, according to HitTracker, he was tied for 3rd in the majors in "Just Enough" HR's with 13 and lead the league in "Lucky" HR's with 5. If maybe five of those HR's turn into doubles, his ISO drops to .245 which seems to be a little more realistic for him based on past history. While he has some power and his home field adds to it, 25-30 HR's is what you should expect of him as opposed to him building upon his 34 HR's.
|CarGo's BABIP vs. League Avg over his career|
All in all, CarGo is a player with 30/30 potential who is a very safe bet for 20/20. His ability to hit for good average and the opportunity to bring in nearly 100 R and 100 RBI make him extremely valuable. But, outfield is a deep position and there are better options in the first round that have better track records on producing consistently for a long period such as Ryan Braun or a host of others. Gonzalez should be a Top 25 player in 2011 but putting him within the Top 5 or close to it is extremely questionable as there are safer options even at scarcer positions available there.