2011 Overvalued Players | According to Marcels Projections

Just as there are undervalued players within each projection system in comparison to the value of a player's current draft position, there are a number of overvalued players hidden in there too.  As previously discussed, Marcels is a projection model that is based on the last three years of performance and regression due to age.  One of the caveats of this is that projected playing time for a player is in relation to amount of playing time from these previous years, which mostly affects rookies or players who had injuries.  Basically, if they suffered from injuries in the past, they are assumed to miss time due to injury again (and, hey, staying healthy is a skill).  In addition, you'll see lower totals for rookies or young players who might not have gotten a full season in yet.  Keep this in mind as we take a gander at who is projected to be overvalued based on Marcels projections converted in WERTH roto values:

Player	Pos	Tm	ADP Rd	Value	xValue	Diff
Jimmy Rollins	SS	PHI	4	-2.91	1.57	-4.48
Francisco Liriano	SP	MIN	7	-2.18	1.10	-3.28
Chone Figgins	2B	SEA	8	-0.90	0.90	-1.80
Alfonso Soriano	OF	CHC	9	-0.92	0.81	-1.73
Ian Stewart	3B	COL	10	-2.02	0.55	-2.57
Brian Roberts	2B	BAL	11	-3.74	0.48	-4.22
Brandon Morrow	SP	TOR	11	-2.50	0.45	-2.95
Michael Stanton	OF	FLA	12	-2.41	0.30	-2.70
Rafael Furcal	SS	LA	12	-1.93	0.26	-2.19
Alex Gonzalez	SS	ATL	13	-3.20	0.11	-3.31
John Lackey	SP	BOS	14	-2.81	-0.05	-2.76
Mike Aviles	2B	KC	14	-3.02	-0.07	-2.95
James Shields	SP	TB	14	-3.65	-0.11	-3.54
Starlin Castro	SS	CHC	14	-2.89	-0.12	-2.77
Josh Beckett	SP	BOS	14	-2.93	-0.15	-2.78
Gio Gonzalez	SP	OAK	15	-2.18	-0.17	-2.00
Jorge De La Rosa	SP	COL	16	-2.54	-0.41	-2.13
Manny Ramirez	OF	TB	16	-2.52	-0.42	-2.10
Edwin Jackson	SP	CHW	18	-2.58	-0.69	-1.89
Brad Lidge	RP	PHI	19	-2.86	-0.87	-1.99
Chipper Jones	3B	ATL	20	-2.94	-1.02	-1.92

When considering the caveats I mentioned, it makes sense why players with a recent injury history such as Jimmy Rollins and Francisco Liriano are overvalued at their draft spot according to this projection system.  And, the rookie caveat that I mentioned accounts for why Michael Stanton or Starlin Castro are on this list (as you may know, I'm a BIG fan of Stanton this year and the fact that his limited playing time hurt this projection here doesn't scare me off).  
However, there are some other interesting names that don't fall into either category that are of interest to me such as Alfonso Soriano and Chone Figgins.  Given that this projection system is based on performance over the past three years, it does make a bit of sense that their projections are low because it doesn't seem like either of those two have done much over the past three years to justify their current draft position.  In fact, that goes for a lot of the names on this list.  They appear to be former big names of fantasy baseball who lost their luster but haven't had their draft status completely reflect that.  
Make sure to take these names with a bit of grain of salt, as this is more or less an exercise in showing you what the projection systems are seeing.  But, on draft day, take a step back and give second thought to these players as you get to a point where you might consider drafting them for your team.

Posted in: 2011, overvalued